Buenos Aires, Argentina — Former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s political aspirations faced a major setback in November when an Argentine appeals court upheld a sentence barring her from running for office for corruption.
The final decision on whether she can appear as a congressional candidate on the 2025 ballot will be made — and probably delayed — by Argentina’s Supreme Court. However, Fernández de Kirchner is set to play a key role in selecting two new judges for the Court, thus giving her a chance to negotiate with her political opponent, President Javier Milei, and potentially maneuver her way out of the sentence and ban on running for office.
The 71-year-old politician has been the central figure in Argentina’s Partido Justicialista (Judicialist Party) for most of the 21st century and served as president from 2007 to 2015. In 2022, the Peronist leader was found guilty of corruption in a case known as “Vialidad,” which investigated inflated budgets for public road construction in Argentina’s Patagonia region. She was sentenced to six years in prison and declared ineligible to run for office indefinitely.
Weeks before the verdict, in September 2022, Fernández de Kirchner survived an assassination attempt outside her home in Buenos Aires’ upscale Recoleta neighborhood. A young, unemployed man in a crowd of supporters pulled the trigger twice on a gun aimed at her, but the weapon failed to fire. The former president attributes the attempt on her life to political and media persecution and claims she is also the target of “lawfare” by a judicial system that has not investigated the alleged financial backers of the attack.
“The strategy of denouncing Lawfare was misused by Fernández de Kirchner from the beginning, and became discredited by the missed opportunities of the past nine years,” Lucas Arrimada, a constitutional law professor at the University of Buenos Aires, told Argentina Reports. “Without changing the force balance in politics, as [Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva] and [United States President Donald Trump] did, it is difficult to revert a judiciary war,” he added.
An appeals court upheld the verdict against Fernández de Kirchner on November 13. The decision was appealed to the Supreme Court by both the prosecution, which is seeking a tougher sentence, and the former president’s defense team, which is pushing for her acquittal.
The Supreme Court’s decision is not expected soon. “It will take some time,” said Juan Carlos Maqueda, a justice on the Court who is stepping down in December after reaching the mandatory retirement age of 75. The case is expected to reach the Supreme Court in March 2025, with most analysts predicting a ruling after the October legislative elections.
Fernández de Kirchner declined to run for office in 2023 after the initial ruling, arguing she didn’t want to be a burden to the Justicialist Party. However, the former president is likely to run next year for a seat in the Cámara de Diputados, Argentina’s House of Representatives. She is expected to compete in Buenos Aires province, a Peronist stronghold and the district where President Milei has performed worst historically. Recent polls show Fernández de Kirchner with a stronger public image than the libertarian leader in Buenos Aires, particularly in the key Conurbano metropolitan region.
Still, the Peronist leader will be able to run for office, as current law only forbids a candidacy if a sentence is upheld by the Supreme Court. A proposal called “Ficha Limpia” (Clean Sheet), introduced by the opposition PRO party, a current ally of Milei’s, is seeking to ban politicians who have had their convictions upheld in appellate courts. However, the initiative has garnered little support in Congress, as it is opposed not only by Peronists but also by Libertarians.
Meanwhile, the ruling Libertarian Party expects a high-profile rival in next year’s election and believes that Fernández de Kirchner’s candidacy blocks the potential renewal of the opposition, ultimately preventing a more viable candidate from competing against Milei in the 2027 presidential elections.
The Supreme Court itself will be grounds for negotiation, as Milei aims to fill two seats: one held by the retiring Maqueda and another vacant since 2021. The Government has proposed Ariel Lijo, a current federal judge with connections across Argentina’s political spectrum and a checkered past, and Manuel García-Mansilla, a right-wing academic and former corporate lawyer. In addition, the Senate is set to debate the nominations of 150 federal judges, along with the Attorney General.
Battle for control of the Supreme Court
In recent months, Fernández de Kirchner has shown an inclination to negotiate with Milei. As the president of the Judicialist Party, she holds influence over 33 of 72 Senate seats, and 48 seats will be needed to confirm a Supreme Court justice.
Fernández de Kirchner may signal to have senators approve Lijo, but has shown she wants to nominate her own candidate — who she believes should be a woman — instead of García-Mansilla to fill the second open seat on the bench.
Last week, a Peronist senator signed the final endorsement needed to bring Lijo’s nomination to the Senate floor. And on December 4, Fernández de Kirchner even admitted that the Constitution needed to be reformed, aligning with Milei’s aspirations.
Milei, however, appears unwilling to compromise. “It is either the two of them, or nothing,” government negotiators have said.
What’s more, Libertarians are demanding their two candidates be approved before potentially adding two more seats to the Supreme Court, which could then be filled by opposition nominees. If no agreement is reached by the end of 2024, Milei is reportedly considering appointing both Lijo and García-Mansilla “by commission,” allowing them to join the tribunal through an executive order without Senate approval. That proposal is opposed by all opposition parties, which have threatened to annul the appointments when the legislative session begins in 2025.
If negotiations succeed, a Supreme Court composed of either five or seven judges will determine the political future of Fernández de Kirchner starting next year. If the Senate remains deadlocked, however, the three remaining judges would need to reach a unanimous decision. A poor electoral outcome for the former president could lead to a faster ruling, while a victory might delay the decision indefinitely.
“Massive negotiations over judicial nominees give every actor a chance to negotiate. The timeline suggests the situation could become abstract, and a decision may never come,” said Arrimada, the law professor.
A recent example supports this idea: Domingo Cavallo, a former economy minister, was acquitted by the Supreme Court in a corruption case that began in the late 1990s. The case reached the court in 2018, and in November, the tribunal dismissed it, citing the right to a trial “within a reasonable timeframe.”
